Monday, May 15, 2017

**Update**DeKalb Schools That "Beat The Odds"

Beating the Odds is a statistical analysis that compares a school’s actual performance on the College and Career Ready Performance Index (CCRPI) with the performance of schools with similar characteristics across the state. See "Georgia Schools Like Mine" data dashboard: https://schoolslikemine.gosa.ga.gov/

Note: I have some concerns as to how the GOSA is choosing "Schools Like Mine". More on that later.

Schools that perform higher than similar schools are considered “Beating the Odds.”

A DCSD stakeholder pointed me to the updated "Beating the Odds" Calculation - thanks!!

Update

On May 5, 2017, GOSA released a recalculated BTO for 2012-2016 to correct a minor error in the calculation formula that affected a small number of schools. Any schools that previously "Beat the Odds" but did not under the recalculated model are "held harmless" for their BTO status in that year.

Last month, a school district staff person identified an issue in the Beating the Odds model where schools serving multiple grade clusters had inaccurate CCRPI Scores without Challenge Points in the dataset if one or more of those grade clusters had not earned a CCRPI Score. GOSA analyzed the issue and realized that the formula did not properly account for proportional enrollment in schools where a grade cluster had too few students to yield a CCRPI score. Most of the schools spanning clusters earn CCRPI scores in those clusters, so the number of schools affected in any given year was 15 or less (less than 1%).
 
To address this issue, GOSA decided to recalculate the analysis. Because BTO is a statistical model that generates a "predicted CCRPI" based upon all schools’ data, the CCRPI and grade cluster changes outlined above required the entire model to be reanalyzed. Therefore, the BTO statuses of schools that did not have grade cluster estimation errors were affected, particularly those that were previously just above or below the threshold.
 
For 2016, 2 DCSD schools had their CCRPI scores (w/o Challenge Points) recalculated: 
  • International Student Center: Original CCRPI 26.3; Post recalculation 26.5.
  • DeKalb Alternative School: Original CCRPI - 25.5; Post recalculation 41.4

For 2016, 2 DCSD schools who were originally named BTO schools, lost that designation with the recalculation:  
  • Lithonia High School 
  • Bethune Middle School
For more details on this correction and to see what schools were affected, click on the May 2017 BTO Calculation Correction Overview document:  https://gosa.georgia.gov/sites/gosa.georgia.gov/files/related_files/site_page/Beating%20the%20Odds%202012-2016%20Recalculation%20Overview%2005052017.pdf
 
February 28, 2017 More than 1,000 Georgia schools beat the odds in 2016, performing better than statistically expected on the College and Career Ready Performance Index (CCRPI).

The CCRPI is Georgia’s statewide accountability system. It measures schools and school districts on a 100-point scale based on multiple indicators of performance.
 
The Beating the Odds analysis predicts a range within which a school’s CCRPI score is statistically expected to fall – given the school’s size, grade cluster, student mobility, and student demographics (including race/ethnicity, disability, English learners, and poverty). If an individual school’s actual CCRPI is above the predicted range, then that school beat the odds.


Most (731) of the schools that beat the odds had poverty rates of 25 percent or more, and 437 had poverty rates of 40 percent or more.

And of the 1,037 schools that beat the odds last year, 271 beat the odds in each of the past five years. Eighty-one of these schools had a 2016 poverty rate of 40 percent or more, and more than half – 157 – had poverty rates of 25 percent or more.
 
The following DCSD schools "Beat the Odds" in 2016:

2016 DeKalb County Schools That "Beat the Odds"
2016 DeKalb County Schools That "Beat the Odds"
School
2016 Single Score CCRPI without Challenge Points
2016 Free and Reduced Lunch Rate
 
School
2016 Single Score CCRPI without Challenge Points
2016 Free and Reduced Lunch Rate
Arabia Mountain High School
89.1
49.07
Henderson Mill Elementary School
75.3
67.18
Ashford Park Elementary School
82.4
26.50
Kelley Lake Elementary School
64.3
> 95%
Austin Elementary School
94.7
< 5%
Kittredge Magnet School
104.1
7.69
Bob Mathis Elementary School
58.4
87.15
Laurel Ridge Elementary School
82.1
42.44
Briar Vista Elementary School
73.3
54.93
Lithonia High School
61.9
78.77
Brockett Elementary School
76.3
76.00
Marbut Elementary School
66.1
80.74
Cedar Grove Elementary School
58.4
83.90
Mary McLeod Bethune Middle School
54.9
> 95%
Cedar Grove High School
75.8
79.13
Miller Grove High School
70.9
75.68
Chamblee Charter High School
86.1
34.93
Museum School Avondale Estates
87.2
12.43
Chamblee Middle School
83.7
31.80
Narvie Harris Elementary School
68.9
62.36
Chapel Hill Middle School
64.7
82.85
Oak Grove Elementary School
87.8
6.09
Columbia High School
64.2
78.90
Redan High School
70.6
79.32
Columbia Middle School
59.4
> 95%
Redan Middle School
63.4
88.90
Cross Keys High School
78.1
86.80
Robert Shaw Theme School
70.2
87.01
DeKalb Alternative School
25.5
93.98
Southwest DeKalb High School
75.2
69.11
DeKalb Early College School
99.1
60.50
Stephenson High School
75.6
65.16
DeKalb Elementary School of the Arts
78.4
64.00
Stepenson Middle School
63.8
85.53
DeKalb PATH Academy Charter School
78.0
> 95%
Stone Mill Elementary School
64.1
> 95%
DeKalb Preparatory Academy Charter
60.6
78.72
Stone Mountain High School
67.2
86.26
DeKalb School of the Arts
96.1
27.71
The Champion Middle Theme School
68.1
61.18
Druid Hills High School
78.7
53.56
Tucker High School
76.2
62.23
Dunwoody High School
90.7
29.64
Wadsworth Magnet School for High Achievers
94.0
53.19
Edward L. Bouie, Sr. Elementary School
68.6
63.88
Woodridge Elementary School
64.0
85.94
Eldridge L. Miller Elementary School
56.6
> 95%

Off topic, but the Free & Reduced Lunch rate at the Museum School of Avondale Estates is low.  It was my impression that stand alone Charter Schools are to reflect the diversity of the local school district.  Kittredge Magnet School's F&RL rate of 7.69 is low as well.  Oh, well,  I will stay off my soapbox on this one....

The following list are DCSD  schools that "Beat the Odds" for 5 straight years:  http://www.gadoe.org/External-Affairs-and-Policy/communications/Documents/2-SchoolsthatBeattheOddsforFiveYears.pdf

Arabia Mountain High School, Austin Elementary School, Cedar Grove High School, Chamblee Charter High School, DeKalb Alternative School, DeKalb Early College Academy, DeKalb Elementary School of the Arts, DeKalb PATH Academy Charter School, DeKalb School of the Arts, Miller Grove High School, Robert Shaw Theme School, The Champion Middle Theme School, Wadsworth Magnet School for High Achievers.

For further information, you may access the GADOE Press Release at this link: http://www.gadoe.org/External-Affairs-and-Policy/communications/Pages/PressReleaseDetails.aspx?PressView=default&pid=510
 

No comments:

Post a Comment